Why Some Coffee Lovers Are Pulling Back and What It Means for the Future and for Win Win Coffee
When was the last time you paused and wondered, “Am I drinking more coffee than I should?” If you’re like me, the answer might be: never. For many of us, coffee isn’t just fuel, it’s ritual, comfort, and connection. But recent research out of Brazil is reminding us that even the most entrenched habits can shift, especially when economic pressures mount.
A new bi-annual study, commissioned by Brazil’s coffee industry group ABIC and conducted by Axxus, has revealed a startling trend: in 2025, 24% of respondents said they reduced their coffee consumption, up dramatically from just 3% in 2023. Meanwhile, only 2% reported increasing their intake, a steep reversal from prior years. Daily heavy consumption (more than six cups) also dipped, from 29% to 26%.
That’s in Brazil, the world’s top producer and the second‐largest consumer of coffee (behind the U.S.). The shift matters far beyond its borders. Why? Because when a key market starts to pull back, the ripple effects reach plantations, importers, roasters, and all the way through the value chain.
In this post, I want to do three things:
Show why the pullback in Brazil is both understandable and striking
Explore what this means for coffee brands, roasters, and specialty coffee lovers
Invite you into what Win Win Coffee believes and how we act in this transforming landscape
If you care about coffee (and I know you do), read on and see why I’m more excited than ever about what we’re building.
Why Brazilians Are Cutting Back
1. Prices squeezing the habit
The study notes one of the most powerful drivers: price. With global supply constraints, inflation, and logistical pressures, coffee is becoming more expensive to produce and distribute. In Brazil especially, where coffee is deeply woven into daily life, even small hikes can force consumers to rethink.
Add to that rising raw bean costs globally: arabica prices have jumped, and many roasters are passing those cost increases onto consumers.
2. Volatility and scarcity at origin
Brazil’s stockpiles have dwindled amid droughts and climate stress. Farmers have sold early, sometimes out of necessity, leaving little buffer. In several regions, producers are turning to expensive irrigation systems just to sustain yields. When supply is constrained, pricing becomes more volatile, which adds uncertainty all along the chain.
3. Changing consumer behavior & mindset
This isn’t just about “can’t afford as much coffee.” It’s also a behavioral change: when budgets tighten, consumers often pare back non-essentials. Coffee, once considered almost nonnegotiable, gets reconsidered. The Brazilian study suggests that fewer people are drinking high volumes, and more are shifting to moderation.
In short: when prices climb and supply wobbles, consumers start flicking switches in their habits. And in Brazil, many are flicking toward “less.”
Why This Matters Globally
Let me zoom out for a moment. Brazil isn’t an isolated case. It’s a bellwether. What happens there often signals upcoming turbulence in global markets. Here’s what the trend tells us:
1. Risk of overcorrection in demand
If consumers begin to scale back too sharply, roasters and importers can find themselves holding inventory risk or overpaying for premium lots. For specialty coffee brands, maintaining margins becomes harder, especially when you want to stay quality-first.
2. Re-shaping sourcing strategies
Brands will have to become more nimble. If Brazil becomes less reliable (either due to climate, cost, or policy), the spotlight shifts to other origin countries. That can mean diversifying supply chains or deepening relationships with smaller producers in Africa, Central America, or Southeast Asia.
3. Pressure on pricing and transparency
As price becomes a more prominent factor in consumption decisions, brands must justify every dollar. That means transparency, showing consumers why your coffee costs what it does (farmers’ pay, sustainability, traceability). The story behind the cup matters as much as the taste.
4. Opportunity for “smart value” and community brands
In times when people tighten budgets, they often trade down rather than quit altogether. But if you can offer high value, not necessarily the cheapest, but the smartest tradeoff of taste, ethics, and cost, you can win loyalty. That’s where niche roasters, direct trade models, and community-driven brands can shine.
Why I Believe in Win Win Coffee and Why You Should Too
Now, let me shift from what’s happening out there to what we’re doing and how Win Win Coffee stands at this inflection point.
Story first: a moment that mattered
A few years ago, our cofounder met a small farmer in Colombia whose entire harvest had been downgraded because drought had shrunk yields. He asked, “How do you tell a farmer they deserve better pay, when the cups back home are paying less?” That question became a guiding star for us.
We resolved early on: Win Win Coffee would not chase margins if it meant undervaluing people or planet. Instead, we would build a model that balances, that wins for farmers, wins for roasters, and wins for drinkers.
Our approach: three pillars of strength
Transparent sourcing + fair pay
We commit to direct relationships with coffee producers. No opaque middlemen. Because if a farmer invests more (irrigation, quality control, sustainable practices), they deserve to see that value in their pay.
This kind of partnership helps buffer against volatility: when costs rise, the trust and contract clarity help everyone plan more responsibly.Quality-driven cost management
We don’t believe “lower price” is always better, but we do believe in controlling costs intelligently. Whether through efficient logistics, micro-lot consolidation, or optimized roasting, we aim to squeeze out inefficiencies so we can deliver a premium experience without outrageous markup.Community and shared story
Every bag we ship carries more than beans, it carries story. Who grew it? Under what conditions? What investment was made in soil, water, community? We share those transparently with you. Because coffee is personal, and when we drink, we vote with our cups.
If you choose Win Win Coffee, you're voting for a future where farmers are respected, quality is honored, and your morning cup carries a connection, not just caffeine.
What You Can Do as a Coffee Lover or Buyer
If you’re reading this, you might be a coffee drinker, a café owner, or someone curious about the industry. Whichever side you’re on, here are some ideas:
Moderate, don’t blackout: Like our Brazilian friends, consider scaling back intensity (six cups → four), but prioritize quality over quantity.
Demand transparency: Ask your roaster or brand: “Who grew this, and how much did they make?” If you don’t like the answer, vote with your wallet.
Support smaller brands: The shift toward local, craft, or mission-driven roasters helps diversify the market and reduce dependency on volatile mega-chains.
Stay curious: Follow reports, climate forecasts, origin stories. The more you know, the more you’ll appreciate each cup’s journey.
The Future of Coffee Isn’t Just Bean + Brew — It’s Trust + Vision
Let me end with this: coffee is a bridge. It spans continents, languages, climates, economies, and communities. And right now, that bridge is under stress, cost pressures, climate realities, shifting habits.
But I’m optimistic. Because stress also breeds innovation. The same disruptions that push consumers to pull back are the ones that open space for brands with clarity, values, and resilience.
If you join me in this, by drinking thoughtfully, by backing brands that care, by learning the stories behind each bag, we won’t just survive this shift. We’ll help shape a coffee world that’s better, fairer, and richer in connection.
Thank you for being part of this journey. I hope each cup you drink reminds you: you’re not just sipping caffeine. You’re participating in a movement.
Acknowledgment: The insights about Brazilian coffee consumption trends are drawn from the Reuters article, “More people cutting coffee consumption in 2nd-largest market Brazil, study shows.”
