From Dollar Strength to Daily Brew: How Global Coffee Prices Touch Your Mug
Ever poured your morning cup and paused, wondering, “Why does this bag of coffee cost how much it does?” Lately, at Win Win Coffee, we’ve been watching the markets closely, because what happens there ripples all the way to your mug. Today I want to walk you through what’s going on, share some tips from our roasting process, and tell you stories that remind us why this journey is worth every sip.
What’s Going On With Coffee Prices
A recent piece by Rich Asplund for Barchart, “Coffee Prices Undercut by a Stronger Dollar”, lays out some of the behind-the-scenes stuff. Nasdaq In short: arabica and robusta coffee futures were climbing (due to concerns like dryness in Brazil’s growing regions and shrinking inventories), but then something pulled them back, the rising strength of the U.S. dollar.
Here’s how that affects us:
A stronger dollar makes U.S. buyers somewhat less competitive globally. Beans abroad suddenly look more expensive in local currencies, even if we’re paying the same or slightly more in dollars.
But markets are fickle. When futures climb, growers and exporters may expect higher prices; when the dollar rises, it can trigger “profit-taking” or “long liquidation” (people who bet on higher prices selling off) which pushes prices down.
There are other pressures too: Brazil’s arabica estimates were revised downward, inventories are tight, and weather (especially dry spells during critical flowering stages) is making everyone nervous.
So we’re in this dynamic tension: supply risks pushing cost up, currency strength pulling some of it back, and unpredictability everywhere.
What This Means For Us at Win Win Coffee and For You
Let me tell you a story. Last year, I visited a farm in Minas Gerais, Brazil. It was just after a dry spell, and I remember the coffee trees during flowering some looked like they were stretching for every drop of rain. The farmer said, “We don’t just grow coffee; this is our life.” The flavor in those cherries was intense but precarious. The cost of producing good arabica under those conditions isn’t small and margin pressures are real.
Because of that, we’ve committed to a few things at Win Win Coffee:
Transparent sourcing — We want you to know where your coffee comes from, what the farmer is facing, so you can appreciate more than just the cup.
Roasting smart — When bean costs are volatile, how we roast matters. We adjust batch sizes, we try to reduce waste, and we experiment so that even with variable bean cost, the flavor remains consistent.
Helping you brew better — Because a great brew makes everything worth it. If you have beans that cost more, but you brew them poorly, you lose the magic. If the bean is less expensive, but you brew well, you might be surprised.
Coffee Tips From My Kitchen (and Yours)
Here are a few things I’ve learned, from roasting, from customers, from late-night taste-testing, that help stretch value and flavor:
Fresh grinding matters: Even small changes, the grind size, how fresh the ground beans are, can change what your taste buds perceive. Use burr grinders, clean your equipment, and grind just before brewing.
Water temperature & ratio: If you’re using hot water that’s too hot (above ~205°F / ~96°C) or too cold, extraction suffers. A ratio of about 1:16 (1 gram coffee to 16 grams water) is a good starting point for pour-overs; tweak from there.
Brewing vessel ritual: One of my favorite customer anecdotes: Sarah, a longtime subscriber, told me she makes her first brew of the week using a cast-iron pour over her grandmother gifted her, with a blend we call Morning Light. The ritual of warming the kettle, rinsing the filter, breathing in the steam, she says that makes the coffee taste “like childhood.” Rituals like that bring value beyond price.
Storing beans well: Keep your beans in a cool, dark place, in a sealed container. Don’t freeze unless you must. When the dollar fluctuates and costs go up, proper storage means you get more flavor for what you pay.
Why We Keep Doing What We Do
Even though market forces (like those Asplund documented) can be scary, every time I roast a new batch, I remember something. I remember customers telling me how their first morning cup helps them feel grounded. I remember that farmer in Brazil, who despite weather and market swings, wakes early to check cherries. I remember the quiet moment when someone tries our Ethiopian Yirgacheffe for the first time and pauses, smiling.
That matters. Because Win Win Coffee isn’t just selling beans. We are part of the coffee story, yours, theirs, ours.
What You Can Do, Right Now
Before I let you go for the day (coffee in hand, perhaps), here are three things you can do that help both your cup and the community:
Support roasters who share where their beans come from. When you buy beans with provenance and fair prices, you support sustainability in flavor and farming.
Try a new brewing method. If you’ve always done drip, test a pour-over or AeroPress. The learning makes you notice subtleties, which makes you appreciate more.
Slow down for the ritual. Even if it’s just 5 extra seconds letting the aroma rise before sipping. Flavor isn’t just chemical, it’s story.
In closing: The markets will shift, dollars will strengthen and weaken, beans will cost more or less, but what stays constant is the love of a good cup, the connection from soil to sip, and the community we brew together. Thanks for being a part of Win Win Coffee’s story.
