☕ Is It a Good Sign That Coffee Prices Are Falling?
Lately, you might’ve seen headlines like “Are coffee prices heading down? Don’t hold your breath.” The short version? Commodity prices Arabica and Robusta have slid, but that doesn’t necessarily mean your daily cup will get cheaper anytime soon rnz.co.nz. Let me tell you why, and what you can do about it.
1. A Dip in Prices, Thanks to Brazil’s Good Weather ☔
Brazil, world’s top coffee producer, just avoided frosts. That triggered a drop, Arabica is down to a 5½‑month low, and Robusta hit a 13‑month low nasdaq.com+1vietnamagriculture.nongnghiep.vn+1. That’s great news for supply, but prices aren’t freefalling either.
Why? Because harvest cycles, shipping lag, long-term contracts, and inventory decisions all delay the impact on our café menus and store shelves.
2. A Bigger Story: A Shaking Market
A global surplus—about 1.4 million bags estimated for 2025/26 vietnamagriculture.nongnghiep.vn+4rnz.co.nz+4scoop.co.nz+4—means more supply than demand. That’s good in theory, but in practice, roasters and farmers are cautious.
In fact, big retailers are absorbing costs rather than passing them on—despite wholesale prices hitting around $4.30 /lb earlier this year perfectdailygrind.com+15carabellocoffee.com+15scoop.co.nz+15perfectdailygrind.com+3foodnavigator.com+3nypost.com+3. And some flavor our beans with cheaper alternatives or even corn and rice to stretch margins under “flavorflation” pressure businessinsider.com.
3. Why Your Cup Might Not Get Cheaper
Commodity price dips don’t always translate into lower retail or café prices. Here's what’s slowing the change:
Long-term buys & hedging: Roasters lock prices months ahead .
Input costs beyond beans: Labor, rent, packaging—those didn’t drop.
Hidden inventory cycles: Beans ordered earlier when prices were high are just hitting roasteries now nypost.com+15tradingeconomics.com+15businessinsider.com+15scoop.co.nz+7the-sun.com+7adelaidenow.com.au+7.
So if your favorite café lowered its latte by 10 ¢ tomorrow, consider it a rare treat.
4. But Here’s the Opportunity for You ☀️
Even with price volatility, you, the at-home brewer can benefit:
Try new origins! When Brazil and Vietnam are flush, explore beans from Ethiopia, Honduras, or Colombia. It's a flavor adventure and often more affordable.
Experiment with brewing methods. Cold brew, pour-over, Aeropress, less bean per cup, all flavor. Plus, it’s fun.
Buy green or subscription bundles. When Win Win Coffee rolls out a blended bundle, ahead of harvest season, you lock in great taste and value.
5. A Win Win Story: From Bean to Brew
Last spring, I remember this: a small batch of Ethiopian Sidamo landed well below our usual going rate. I sent customers a note:
“I just tried this, wow. Juicy blueberry, crisp citrus, velvet finish. Let me know if you feel the glow.”
Customers wrote back:
“Your tip was spot on, best pour-over I’ve had!”
That’s Win Win Coffee in action, sharing stories and community. Because when coffee connects, it becomes so much more than a hot drink. It’s a conversation, a memory, a feeling.
Final Sip: What This Means for You
Prices may be falling, but expect a lag before it affects retail.
This is a chance to explore—new beans, new brews, new rituals.
We grow together—your stories, feedback, and taste experiments keep our community lively.
So whether you’re sipping a morning roast or fine-tuning your pour-over, know this: you’re part of something big, an ecosystem of farmers, roasters, brewers, and people who just love a great cup.
Here’s to many more coffee mornings, rich in flavor and connection.
